About 9% of US companies in Vietnam have cut their headcount following the announcement of the Trump administration’s “reciprocal tariffs” on the export-driven Southeast Asian economy, according to a survey by the American Chamber of Commerce ( AmCham ).

Staffing and revenue shifts are among the key insights from the business survey, conducted by AmCham Ho Chi Minh City to review the mid-year operations of the group’s companies in Vietnam.

The survey results were released days before US President Donald Trump announced on July 2 that imports from Vietnam would face a 20% tariff, significantly lower than the 46% levy he had announced three months prior. In the new trade deal, goods from third countries shipped through Vietnam will be subject to a 40% tariff.   

The AmCham study shows that headcount trends were largely steady, with 61% of US companies having either increased ( 45% ) or maintained ( 16% ) the number of employees in the country. Staff reductions were less common, with only 9% reporting a decrease.

“This hiring activity signals that businesses are planning for longer-term growth, even if near-term revenue performance is mixed,” AmCham notes.

Measured confidence

The results show a big difference from the findings of an AmCham survey released in February, in which nearly two-thirds of the US manufacturers surveyed saw “potential layoffs”.

In its mid-year update, the association says business performance in the first half of 2025 shows significant divergence across sectors. Nearly one in five companies ( 18% ) reported outcomes that exceeded expectations, led by strong gains in logistics, select manufacturing segments, and large-scale food and beverage enterprises.

However, challenges persisted for others as 29% of businesses reported results that were slightly below expectations, while 12% experienced significant underperformance.

These shortfalls were most pronounced among smaller professional services firms, educational institutions, and segments of the real estate sector, AmCham notes.

“Looking ahead, sentiment for the remainder of 2025 is cautiously optimistic. While 39% of respondents indicated a ‘slightly optimistic’ outlook and 2% remained neutral, fewer than 10% expressed ‘strong optimism’ about near-term prospects.

“This measured confidence points to a business environment that is hopeful but mindful of lingering economic headwinds”, the group says.

Split revenue picture

Meanwhile, 52% of the surveyed firms reported year-on-year revenue gains during the first half, while 29% saw declines. Among them, the manufacturing sector accounted for both ends of the spectrum, with some firms benefiting from rising exports and others struggling due to tariff concerns and supply chain volatility.

The most pressing concern across all sectors was the potential impact of US tariffs. More than one-third ( 36% ) of companies said, prior to Trump’s announcement of the trade deal with Vietnam, that they were “extremely concerned”, and another 41% were “somewhat concerned”.

Meanwhile, many companies reported that US trade policies had already “somewhat” or “significantly” hurt their operations. Manufacturers and exporters were particularly vocal, with some warning that future investment or expansion could hinge on greater predictability in trade relations.

When asked to rate the overall business climate in Vietnam, 37% of companies described it as “somewhat positive,” while another 30% considered it “neutral”.

Respondents recognized recent progress in administrative reform, such as reduced paperwork and digital government initiatives. However, several cited inconsistent policy enforcement, regulatory ambiguity, and limited provincial coordination as ongoing obstacles.

Positive factors

Despite the challenges, many firms see meaningful opportunities on the horizon, the latest survey shows.

Companies highlighted Vietnam’s growing role in global supply chains, especially as part of the "China+1" strategy, as a major advantage. Others pointed to the expansion of the digital economy, rising consumer demand, and infrastructure development as signs of a resilient domestic growth engine.

In the study, professional services and logistics firms noted an increasing demand for tech-enabled solutions, regulatory compliance services, and sustainable practices. Meanwhile, manufacturers expressed optimism about new purchase orders shifting to Vietnam from other Asian markets, though many cautioned that the momentum would depend on both local conditions and global policy stability.

With more than 550 corporate and 2,500 individual members, AmCham is one of the largest business associations in Vietnam. The group states in the survey that firms are investing, hiring, and adapting, but they are also watching closely.

“For Vietnam to fully realize its potential, clarity on tariffs, consistent policy implementation, and accelerated reform remain critical,” AmCham says. Or, as one survey respondent puts it, “the opportunity is here if the roadblocks don’t get in the way”.